UGAZ snaps to lowest close ever
VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas (UGAZ) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, UGAZ finished Tuesday at 25.95 losing $0.53 (-2.0%) on high volume. Today's close at 25.95 marks the lowest recorded closing price ever. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 26.34, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.45 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UGAZ as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.59 (2.23%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.02. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UGAZ.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on March 26th, UGAZ lost -2.65% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for UGAZ. Out of 18 times, UGAZ closed higher 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 77.78% with an average market move of 2.41%.