TZA dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TZA ended the month -17.41% lower at 21.20 after losing $0.84 (-3.81%) today on low volume. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 21.72, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.71 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TZA as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.37 (6.12%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.98. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TZA.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
While Direxion Small is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 20.94 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 18.70, downside momentum could accelerate should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Direxion Small. Out of 679 times, TZA closed lower 54.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.71% with an average market move of -1.57%.