TVIX closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN (TVIX) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TVIX ended the month -10.87% lower at 126.55 after losing $12.45 (-8.96%) today on low volume. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 138.76, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $14.20 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TVIX as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $17.94 (12.65%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $23.75. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TVIX.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on June 25th, TVIX actually gained 11.17% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
As prices are trading close to June's low at 106.32, downside momentum could speed up should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TVIX. Out of 325 times, TVIX closed lower 65.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.85% with an average market move of -4.89%.
Market Conditions for TVIX as at Jun 30, 2020
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