TLT breaks below Tuesday's low
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, TLT ended Wednesday at 163.58 losing $0.49 (-0.3%). Closing below Tuesday's low at 163.79, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.81 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TLT as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.91 (1.16%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.64. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TLT.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
The ETF closed back below the 20-day moving average at 164.00 for the first time since September 9th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 4th, TLT actually gained 0.61% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 165.08 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 161.95 where further sell stops could get activated. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test August's nearby low at 160.64.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for TLT. Out of 49 times, TLT closed higher 59.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.36%.