TLT runs into sellers again around 171.46
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TLT finished the month 4.31% higher at 171.00 after losing $0.11 (-0.06%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TLT as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.51 (0.89%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.27. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TLT.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 170.93 (S1). After having been unable to move above 171.26 in the previous session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 171.46. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TLT actually gained 0.66% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for TLT. Out of 447 times, TLT closed higher 56.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.70% with an average market move of 0.45%.