TLT dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, TLT finished the week -0.7% lower at 165.55 after gaining $0.99 (0.6%) today on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 165.36, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.32 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TLT as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.06 (0.64%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.76. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TLT.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
The market managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 164.90 for the first time since May 15th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on May 12th, TLT gained 0.70% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 166.37 (R1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to May's low at 162.05, downside momentum might speed up should TLT mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for TLT. Out of 290 times, TLT closed higher 53.45% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 49.31% with an average market move of 0.04%.