TLT closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TLT finished the week 0.08% higher at 144.55 after gaining $0.63 (0.44%) today ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.32 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on February 5th, TLT actually gained 0.45% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TLT as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.63 (0.44%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.92. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TLT.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 144.29 (S1).
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 145.25 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 145.99, upside momentum might accelerate should TLT be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to February's high at 145.76, upside momentum could speed up should the ETF mark new highs for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for TLT. Out of 561 times, TLT closed higher 57.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.75% with an average market move of 0.41%.