TIP breaks below Monday's low
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TIP ended the month 0.99% higher at 123.00 after losing $0.20 (-0.16%) today on high volume. Closing below Monday's low at 123.04, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.23 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TIP as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.55 (0.45%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.36. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TIP.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. In spite of a strong opening the ETF closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on April 30th, TIP lost -0.25% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 122.71 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TIP. Out of 92 times, TIP closed lower 54.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.43% with an average market move of -0.35%.