SPTM breaks back above 20-day moving average
SPDR Portfolio Total Stock Market (SPTM) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, SPTM ended Thursday at 38.13 gaining $0.16 (0.42%) on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPTM as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.51 (1.33%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.72. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SPTM.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
SPDR Portfolio managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 38.01 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 15th, SPTM gained 1.97% on the following trading day.
The ETF shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SPDR Portfolio. Out of 706 times, SPTM closed higher 58.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.90% with an average market move of 0.58%.