SHY unable to break through key resistance level
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SHY ended the month -0.06% lower at 86.61 after losing $0.01 (-0.01%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SHY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.03 (0.03%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.03. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SHY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 86.63 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 86.63 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on May 29th, SHY lost -0.09% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 86.55.
The ETF shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SHY. Out of 436 times, SHY closed higher 51.83% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.69% with an average market move of 0.03%.