SDY fails to close above 20-day moving average
SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SDY ended Thursday at 91.07 gaining $0.55 (0.61%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. Trading $0.86 higher after the open, SPDR S&P was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on May 5th, SDY lost -1.68% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SDY as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.79 (1.95%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.19. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SDY.
After spiking up to 92.68 during the day, the ETF found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 92.62.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 92.96 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SPDR S&P. Out of 453 times, SDY closed higher 53.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.82% with an average market move of 0.47%.