SDOW closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
UltraPro Short Dow30 (SDOW) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SDOW finished the month -10.67% lower at 24.04 after losing $0.56 (-2.28%) today on low volume. Closing below Monday's low at 24.58, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.88 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SDOW as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.25 (5.03%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.52. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SDOW.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 23.70 during the day, the market found support at the 20-day moving average at 23.80. The last time this happened on February 4th, SDOW actually lost -4.92% on the following trading day.
Although UltraPro Short is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.92 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 20.68, downside momentum might speed up should SDOW break out to new lows for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UltraPro Short. Out of 332 times, SDOW closed lower 56.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 67.47% with an average market move of -1.78%.