SCHE finds buyers around 24.28 for the third day in a row
Schwab Emerging Markets Equity (SCHE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SCHE finished the month 6.29% higher at 24.35 after losing $0.13 (-0.53%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SCHE as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.18 (0.74%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.34. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for SCHE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 24.25 and 24.60 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
After trading down to 24.28 earlier during the day, the ETF bounced off the key technical support level at 24.29 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 24.48. Schwab Emerging found buyers again today around 24.28 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 24.25 in the previous session and at 24.26 two days ago. The last time this happened on September 23, 2019, SCHE actually lost -1.02% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 24.25 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior two Lows" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Schwab Emerging. Out of 47 times, SCHE closed lower 61.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.83% with an average market move of -1.32%.