RSX dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, RSX finished the week 0.77% higher at 24.79 after edging lower $0.12 (-0.48%) today on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 24.89, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.19 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RSX as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.37 (1.48%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.25. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for RSX.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on January 24th, RSX actually lost -2.98% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 24.47 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 25.08 (R1). After having been unable to move above 25.10 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 25.07.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for RSX. Out of 39 times, RSX closed higher 51.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.54% with an average market move of 0.46%.