RSP closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 01, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RSP finished Wednesday at 101.62 edging lower $0.14 (-0.14%). Trading $0.74 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 5th, RSP actually gained 2.40% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RSP as at Jul 01, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.64 (1.61%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.50. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RSP.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 103.99 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for RSP. Out of 196 times, RSP closed higher 61.73% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.20% with an average market move of 0.37%.