QLD finds buyers at key support level
ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
QLD ended the week 0.9% higher at 100.45 after losing $0.68 (-0.67%) today on low volume. Trading $0.39 higher after the open, ProShares Ultra was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price.
Daily Candlestick Chart (QLD as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.04 (1.03%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.14. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for QLD.
After trading down to 100.21 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 100.27 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on Tuesday, QLD gained 1.79% on the following trading day.
Although the ETF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 102.70 where further buy stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 104.80, upside momentum could speed up should QLD be able to break out to new highs for the year. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test August's close-by high at 104.05.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for ProShares Ultra. Out of 324 times, QLD closed higher 57.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of 2.13%.