PRF closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 (PRF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PRF ended Thursday at 108.65 gaining $0.75 (0.7%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. Trading $0.94 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PRF as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.89 (1.73%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.34. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PRF.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 107.35 (S1).
Invesco FTSE shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 110.74 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Invesco FTSE. Out of 472 times, PRF closed higher 54.45% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.56% with an average market move of 0.62%.