PIN breaks back above 20-day moving average
PowerShares India ETF (PIN) Technical Analysis Report for May 21, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, PIN ended Thursday at 15.44 edging higher $0.04 (0.26%). Trading $0.06 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on May 11th, PIN actually gained 3.11% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PIN as at May 21, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.11 (0.71%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.28. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for PIN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.99 and 15.52 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 15.44 for the first time since May 14th. After having been unable to move above 15.50 in the previous session, PIN ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 15.52.
While the ETF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 14.99 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for PIN. Out of 177 times, PIN closed lower 54.24% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.85% with an average market move of -0.17%.