PCY closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, PCY ended the month 4.12% higher at 26.78 after gaining $0.14 (0.53%) today on high volume. Trading up to $0.06 lower after the open, the ETF managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on June 25th, PCY actually lost -0.26% on the following trading day. Ending with a strong close near the high of the day sets a bullish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PCY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.14 (0.52%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.29. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PCY.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 26.83 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 26.55 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to June's high at 26.97, upside momentum might speed up should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Invesco Emerging. Out of 450 times, PCY closed higher 56.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.56% with an average market move of 0.18%.