MJ breaks back below 50-day moving average
ETFMG Alternative Harvest (MJ) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
MJ finished the month -6.47% lower at 12.87 after losing $0.14 (-1.08%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (MJ as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.18 (1.39%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.49. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for MJ.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 12.65 (S1). The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 12.97. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 26th, MJ actually gained 1.48% on the following trading day.
The ETF shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 12.57 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for ETFMG Alternative. Out of 269 times, MJ closed lower 56.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 53.90% with an average market move of -0.36%.