KRE dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 10, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
KRE finished the week -1.99% lower at 35.88 after gaining $1.69 (4.94%) today. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 35.65, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.26 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (KRE as at Jul 10, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.69 (4.93%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.77. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for KRE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 35.50 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 33.99 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 34.22.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 37.92. The last time this happened on March 13th, KRE actually lost -13.66% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 33.99 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for SPDR S&P. Out of 623 times, KRE closed higher 56.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.13% with an average market move of 0.33%.