GLD runs into sellers again around 163.47
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GLD ended the week -0.44% lower at 163.21 after gaining $0.96 (0.59%) today on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GLD as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.73 (0.45%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.76. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for GLD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the previous session, the market managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on April 1st, GLD gained 1.64% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 162.41 (S1). After having been unable to move above 163.58 in the previous session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 163.47.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 164.96 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 161.37 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Harami Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for GLD. Out of 39 times, GLD closed lower 71.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.85% with an average market move of -0.08%.