GLD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GLD ended Wednesday at 123.37 losing $0.49 (-0.4%). Trading $0.71 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on February 5th, GLD lost -0.68% on the following trading day. Closing below Tuesday's low at 123.61, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.30 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GLD as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.24 (1.0%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.63. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for GLD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 124.42 (R1), GLD closed below it after spiking up to 124.55 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward.
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 123.19 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for GLD. Out of 110 times, GLD closed higher 59.09% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.64% with an average market move of 0.01%.