FXY closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, FXY finished Wednesday at 90.04 gaining $0.34 (0.38%). Today's close at 90.04 marks the highest recorded closing price since July 30th. Trading $0.13 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FXY as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.22 (0.24%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.27. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FXY.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 89.87 (S1).
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since July 30th, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices might head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 89.28 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices. The last time prices broke out above the upper Bollinger Band on July 24th, FXY gained 0.53% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Trading close to July's high at 90.40 we could see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for FXY. Out of 133 times, FXY closed lower 54.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 72.18% with an average market move of -0.75%.