FXY drops to lowest close since April 9th
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) Technical Analysis Report for May 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FXY ended the month -0.54% lower at 87.83 after losing $0.17 (-0.19%) today. Today's close at 87.83 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 9th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 87.88, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.08 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FXY as at May 29, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.42 (0.48%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.25. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FXY.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
The ETF closed back below the 50-day moving average at 87.86 for the first time since May 19th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 19th, FXY actually gained 0.18% on the following trading day.
Though FXY is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
As prices are trading close to May's low at 87.73, downside momentum might speed up should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for FXY. Out of 114 times, FXY closed higher 52.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.04% with an average market move of 0.45%.