FXE breaks below Tuesday's low
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, FXE ended Wednesday at 111.13 losing $0.44 (-0.39%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 111.50, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.49 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FXE as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.67 (0.6%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.52. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FXE.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Belt-hold, the Black Candle and the Three Black Crows which are known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Belt-hold showed up on July 9th, FXE actually gained 0.12% on the following trading day.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 110.84 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test August's close-by low at 110.31.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Belt-hold" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for FXE. Out of 16 times, FXE closed lower 56.25% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.50% with an average market move of -0.06%.