FXE slips to lowest close since November 12, 2018
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
FXE finished Wednesday at 107.55 tanking $0.64 (-0.59%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. Today's close at 107.55 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 12, 2018. Trading $0.17 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (FXE as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.37 (0.34%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.40. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for FXE.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, FXE actually gained 0.48% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 107.47 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 107.83 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 107.91 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since Monday, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 108.68 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
2018's low at 107.47 is within reach and we might see further downside momentum should FXE break out beyond.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for FXE. Out of 299 times, FXE closed lower 63.21% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.18% with an average market move of -0.33%.