EWP runs into sellers again around 22.98
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (EWP) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EWP finished Monday at 22.96 gaining $0.32 (1.41%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EWP as at Aug 03, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $0.32 (1.41%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.32. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EWP.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After having been unable to move above 23.04 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 22.98.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 23.47. The last time this happened on March 17th, EWP actually lost -7.31% on the following trading day.
Though the ETF is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test July's nearby low at 22.33.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EWP. Out of 88 times, EWP closed higher 54.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 57.95% with an average market move of 0.34%.