EWP still stuck within tight trading range
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (EWP) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EWP ended the month 3.41% higher at 22.46 after losing $0.07 (-0.31%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EWP as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.38 (1.71%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.46. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EWP. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.05 and 22.68 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 22.60 (R1). After having been unable to move above 22.60 in the prior session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 22.54. The last time this happened on June 25th, EWP lost -2.60% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 22.60 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.05 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 21.76, downside momentum could speed up should EWP mark new lows for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for EWP. Out of 664 times, EWP closed higher 53.01% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.26% with an average market move of 0.25%.