EUFN still stuck within tight trading range
iShares MSCI Europe Financial Sector Index Fund (EUFN) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EUFN finished the month 5.8% higher at 14.23 after edging lower $0.03 (-0.21%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EUFN as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.28 (1.99%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.34. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EUFN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 13.95 and 14.41 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on June 25th, EUFN actually lost -2.92% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 14.04 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 14.11 in the previous session, iShares MSCI found buyers again around the same price level today at 14.06.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 14.35 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 13.96 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for iShares MSCI. Out of 661 times, EUFN closed lower 49.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 49.92% with an average market move of -0.03%.