EMB closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, EMB ended the month 2.65% higher at 109.22 after gaining $0.42 (0.39%) today. Today's close at 109.22 marks the highest recorded closing price since June 8th. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EMB as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.50 (0.46%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.90. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for EMB. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 108.30 and 109.53 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Short Candle showed up on April 17th, EMB actually lost -0.63% on the following trading day.
IShares J. P. managed to close above the 200-day moving average at 109.17 for the first time since March 6th. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 109.32 (R1).
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 109.53 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 108.30 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for iShares J. P.. Out of 35 times, EMB closed higher 65.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.35%.