EFA closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
EFA ended the month 2.03% higher at 60.85 after losing $0.13 (-0.21%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (EFA as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.65 (1.07%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.94. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for EFA. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 60.30 and 61.53 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 60.30 (S1). The market was bought again around 60.45 after having seen lows at 60.44, 60.40 and 60.30 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The ETF shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 60.30 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 59.13, downside momentum might speed up should EAFE ETF mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous two Lows" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for EAFE ETF. Out of 67 times, EFA closed higher 62.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 53.73% with an average market move of -0.11%.