DBEF breaks back above 20-day moving average
Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity (DBEF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
DBEF finished Tuesday at 30.85 gaining $0.38 (1.25%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DBEF as at Jul 14, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.37 (1.21%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.34. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for DBEF.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 30.60. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 30.90 (R1). After having been unable to move above 30.93 in the previous session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 30.89. The last time this happened on July 1st, DBEF actually gained 1.29% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 30.93 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Xtrackers MSCI. Out of 678 times, DBEF closed higher 57.52% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.52% with an average market move of 0.29%.