DBC closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
DBC finished Thursday at 11.46 edging lower $0.04 (-0.35%). Trading $0.11 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on March 17th, DBC lost -3.30% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DBC as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.25 (2.18%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.33. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for DBC. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 11.22 and 11.61 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one neutral candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Doji.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 11.32 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 11.30 in the previous session, the ETF found buyers again around the same price level today at 11.33.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 11.61 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Doji" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for DBC. Out of 128 times, DBC closed higher 55.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 53.91% with an average market move of 0.06%.