BND closes within previous day's range
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BND ended Wednesday at 88.44 losing $0.02 (-0.02%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BND as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.26 (0.29%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.22. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BND.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Regardless of a strong opening the ETF closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on August 7th, BND lost -0.11% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 88.34 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 88.36 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Further selling might move prices lower should the market test August's nearby low at 88.12.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard Total. Out of 73 times, BND closed higher 61.64% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.90% with an average market move of 0.10%.