BND closes higher for the 4th day in a row
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, BND finished the week 0.34% higher at 87.65 after edging higher $0.03 (0.03%) today ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Today's close at 87.65 marks the highest recorded closing price since April 16th. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BND as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.07 (0.08%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.23. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BND.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
After having been unable to move above 87.69 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 87.68. The last time this happened on May 7th, BND lost -0.29% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 87.69 where further buy stops could get activated. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test April's nearby high at 87.86.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard Total. Out of 470 times, BND closed higher 54.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.47% with an average market move of 0.04%.