BND dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team


BND pushes through key technical resistance level
BND dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
BND closes higher for the 5th day in a row
BND runs into sellers again around 85.69
BND closes within previous day's range after lackluster session


Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, BND finished Thursday at 85.60 gaining $0.39 (0.46%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.

Daily Candlestick Chart (BND as at Mar 26, 2020):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) as at Mar 26, 2020

Thursday's trading range has been $0.65 (0.76%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.96. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for BND.

One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.

Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 85.58 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on March 16th, BND actually lost -2.07% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 85.65 in the previous session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 85.69.

The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.

Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard Total. Out of 462 times, BND closed higher 54.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 53.68% with an average market move of 0.02%.

Market Conditions for BND as at Mar 26, 2020

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