BND closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, BND ended the week 0.07% higher at 85.26 after gaining $0.09 (0.11%) today ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BND as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.09 (0.11%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.14. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for BND.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Tuesday, BND lost -0.12% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 85.20 (S1).
Though the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 85.39 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 85.05 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 85.58, upside momentum could speed up should Vanguard Total be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard Total. Out of 517 times, BND closed higher 55.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.45% with an average market move of 0.08%.