BND finds buyers at key support level
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
BND ended the week 0.3% higher at 81.21 after edging higher $0.02 (0.02%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BND as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.15 (0.18%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.13. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for BND.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 81.15 earlier during the day, the ETF bounced off the key technical support level at 81.18 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 81.17 in the previous session, Vanguard Total found buyers again around the same price level today at 81.15. The last time this happened on May 8th, BND gained 0.10% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 81.36 where further buy stops might get triggered. 2018's high at 81.50 is within reach and we could see further upside momentum should the market manage to break out beyond.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior low" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Vanguard Total. Out of 459 times, BND closed higher 57.30% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.43% with an average market move of 0.03%.