AMLP runs into sellers again around 24.12
Alerian MLP (AMLP) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AMLP ended the month -3.81% lower at 23.74 after losing $0.16 (-0.67%) today on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AMLP as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.90 (3.77%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.78. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for AMLP.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on Tuesday, AMLP actually gained 3.68% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 23.22 during the day, Alerian MLP found support at the 100-day moving average at 23.28. After having been unable to move above 24.16 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 24.12.
Though the ETF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 24.55 where further buy stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to July's high at 25.14, upside momentum could speed up should AMLP mark new highs for the month. As prices are trading close to July's low at 22.39, downside momentum might accelerate should Alerian MLP mark new lows for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Alerian MLP. Out of 24 times, AMLP closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.17% with an average market move of -1.10%.