AGG closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 21, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AGG ended Monday at 118.24 gaining $0.02 (0.02%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AGG as at Sep 21, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $0.18 (0.15%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.29. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AGG.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Homing Pigeon which is known as bullish pattern and two bearish patterns, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle.
After having been unable to move above 118.44 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 118.42. The last time this happened on September 17th, AGG lost -0.12% on the following trading day.
IShares Core shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 118.53 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 118.18 where further sell stops might get triggered. Trading close to July's low at 117.76 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Homing Pigeon" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for iShares Core. Out of 20 times, AGG closed higher 55.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.00% with an average market move of 0.20%.