AGG rises to highest close ever
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, AGG ended the month 1.14% higher at 119.56 after gaining $0.05 (0.04%) today. Today's close at 119.56 marks the highest recorded closing price ever. Closing above Thursday's high at 119.54, iShares Core confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.09 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AGG as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.23 (0.19%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.20. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AGG.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
After trading down to 119.40 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 119.42 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on July 16th, AGG gained 0.10% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Top Pattern" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for iShares Core. Out of 62 times, AGG closed lower 61.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.84% with an average market move of -0.10%.