XVGUSD breaks back below 100-day moving average
Verge/US Dollar Index (XVGUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XVGUSD ended Sunday at 0.00453 tanking $0.00039 (-7.93%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two months. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XVGUSD as at Nov 22, 2020):
Sunday's trading range has been $0.00055 (11.18%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.00041. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for XVGUSD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Friday, XVGUSD actually gained 17.14% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.00429 (S1). Verge closed back below the 100-day moving average at 0.00484.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.00430.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.00419 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XVG/USD. Out of 146 times, XVGUSD closed higher 50.68% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 52.05% with an average market move of 2.69%.