XMRUSD still stuck within tight trading range
XMR/US Dollar Index (XMRUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XMRUSD finished Sunday at 123.28 losing $5.03 (-3.92%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XMRUSD as at Nov 22, 2020):
Sunday's trading range has been $7.27 (5.67%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $7.07. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for XMRUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 116.98 and 128.46 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Belt-hold and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 128.46 (R1). After having been unable to move above 128.46 in the previous session, Monero ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 128.31. The last time this happened on November 12th, XMRUSD actually gained 2.07% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 117.43.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 128.46 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 116.98 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XMR/USD. Out of 91 times, XMRUSD closed higher 56.04% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.84% with an average market move of 10.04%.