XMRUSD breaks back below 50-day moving average
XMR/US Dollar Index (XMRUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XMRUSD finished the week -0.63% lower at 62.92 after tanking $2.43 (-3.72%) today. This is the biggest single-day loss in over three weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on June 11th, XMRUSD actually gained 2.92% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XMRUSD as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.04 (4.65%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.14. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for XMRUSD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Even with a strong opening XMR/USD closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The cryptocurrency closed back below the 50-day moving average at 65.23. After having been unable to move lower than 62.64 in the prior session, Monero found buyers again around the same price level today at 62.65.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 62.64 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Very Strong Down Move" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XMR/USD. Out of 84 times, XMRUSD closed higher 64.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.10% with an average market move of 12.48%.
With five out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are EOSUSD gaining 2.54% and XRPUSD closing 0.86% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been ETHUSD closing -0.59% lower and BTCUSD losing -0.29%. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been VETBTC surging 7.62% and ICXBTC closing 6.57% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BTGUSD tanking -8.19% and BTGBTC closing -5.0% lower. Read more