XMRUSD runs into sellers again around 104.16
XMR/US Dollar Index (XMRUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 13, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, XMRUSD finished Saturday at 103.17 gaining $1.96 (1.94%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XMRUSD as at Oct 13, 2018):
Saturday's trading range has been $2.99 (2.95%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.00. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for XMRUSD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Short Candle showed up on August 5th, XMRUSD actually lost -2.78% on the following trading day.
After having been unable to move above 104.67 in the previous session, Monero ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 104.16.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day while could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 113.27.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 99.64 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 96.60.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XMR/USD. Out of 38 times, XMRUSD closed higher 63.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.26% with an average market move of 22.19%.
With five out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are ETHUSD gaining 1.6% and EOSUSD closing 1.54% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been XRPUSD closing -0.38% lower. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been STEEMBTC surging 5.26% and SCBTC closing 4.08% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BCNUSD tanking -4.43% and BTGBTC closing -2.26% lower. Read more