XMRBTC pushes through key technical resistance level
XMR/Bitcoin Index (XMRBTC) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 13, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XMRBTC finished Saturday at 0.01636 gaining BTC0.00024 (1.49%) on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XMRBTC as at Oct 13, 2018):
Saturday's trading range has been BTC0.00035 (2.17%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of BTC0.00055. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for XMRBTC.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.01616 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on Wednesday, XMRBTC actually lost -6.57% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.01730.
Monero shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.01603 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 0.01550.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for XMR/BTC. Out of 41 times, XMRBTC closed lower 68.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 65.85% with an average market move of -0.26%.
With five out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are ETHUSD gaining 1.6% and EOSUSD closing 1.54% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been XRPUSD closing -0.38% lower. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been STEEMBTC surging 5.26% and SCBTC closing 4.08% higher. The worst performers of the day have been BCNUSD tanking -4.43% and BTGBTC closing -2.26% lower. Read more