XLMUSD closes within previous day's range
Stellar/US Dollar Index (XLMUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XLMUSD ended Sunday at 0.0795 losing $0.0021 (-2.57%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XLMUSD as at Oct 18, 2020):
Sunday's trading range has been $0.0030 (3.68%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.0034. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for XLMUSD.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 0.0792 earlier during the day, XLM bounced off the key technical support level at 0.0792 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.0750. The last time this happened on October 11th, XLMUSD actually gained 0.52% on the following trading day.
While the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XLM/USD. Out of 52 times, XLMUSD closed higher 55.77% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.92% with an average market move of 26.17%.
With six out of the seven Major Cryptocurrencies closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are ETHUSD gaining 2.69% and BCHUSD closing 1.76% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been ETCUSD closing -0.36% lower. Looking at the other Minor Cryptocurrencies, the winners of the day have been BCNUSD surging 13.16% and VETBTC closing 5.15% higher. The worst performers of the day have been WAVESBTC tanking -5.27% and WAVESUSD closing -4.08% lower. Read more