XLMBTC fails to close above 50-day moving average
Stellar/Bitcoin Index (XLMBTC) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XLMBTC finished Sunday at 0.00000566 losing BTC0.00000019 (-3.25%) on high volume. Trading BTC0.00000027 higher after the open, XLM/BTC was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XLMBTC as at Nov 22, 2020):
Sunday's trading range has been BTC0.00000065 (11.11%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of BTC0.00000029. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for XLMBTC.
After trading down to 0.00000547 earlier during the day, the cryptocurrency bounced off the key technical support level at 0.00000559 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on Friday, XLMBTC gained 23.16% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 0.00000612 during the day, XLM found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 0.00000595.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.00000515.
While the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for XLM/BTC. Out of 73 times, XLMBTC closed higher 47.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.64% with an average market move of 5.79%.