QTUMUSD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
QTUM/US Dollar Index (QTUMUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
QTUMUSD ended Sunday at 2.55 losing $0.15 (-5.56%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (QTUMUSD as at Nov 22, 2020):
Sunday's trading range has been $0.21 (7.78%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.15. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for QTUMUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Wednesday, QTUMUSD actually gained 4.65% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 2.47 (S1).
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 2.11.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for QTUM/USD. Out of 81 times, QTUMUSD closed lower 67.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 56.79% with an average market move of -1.35%.